Tier One PicksFree — no account

Fantasy football projections that show their work.

Most rankings hand you one number and ask you to trust it. Tier One Picks gives you a range, scored for your league's actual rules — and publishes how often it was right.

We'll email you once before launch, and nothing else. No spam, no sharing your address, unsubscribe any time.

Why it's different

Built for your league, not a generic one

Half-PPR with a TE premium and a superflex? The numbers are recomputed for that, so a QB doesn't get ranked like it's a 1QB league.

A range, not false precision

Every player gets a floor, a median and a ceiling. Football is uncertain — projections that hide that are lying to you.

We publish when we're wrong

There's an accuracy page showing our track record, misses included. It's the thing we'd want to see before trusting anyone else's numbers.

What it looks like

Real numbers from the 2026 board — not mock-ups with invented figures.

Rankings — 2026 PPR, ranked by value
1
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA · Tier 1
278
2
Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL · Tier 1
268
3
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET · Tier 1
271
4
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET · Tier 1
258
5
Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN · Tier 2
250
Every player gets a floor, a median and a ceiling. The bar is the range; the mark is the median.
Live draft room — on the clock
On the clock
Bijan Robinson is Tier 1 at running back, and the drop to the next tier is 30.1 points. Waiting costs more than the players it saves.
Bijan Robinson
RB · ATL · Tier 1
ADP 3.0
Jahmyr Gibbs
RB · DET · Tier 1
ADP 4.1
Breece Hall
RB · NYJ · Tier 2
Tier drop
It tells you who to take and why, while the clock runs.
Ask about your league
Should I trade Gibbs for Chase?

Close, and it depends what you need. Gibbs projects 258 with a 128–362 range; Chase projects 250 across 153–323. Gibbs has the higher ceiling, Chase the safer floor — if you're chasing a playoff seed, take the floor.

Grounded in: projections · 2026 board
Answers cite the numbers behind them, and say so when they don't have the data.

Free tools, no account needed

Use these right now — they run entirely in your browser and store nothing.

Coming after launch

Sports betting analytics and DFS tools are in development — the same modelling approach applied to different questions. Fantasy football comes first, and comes first properly.

Get in before the season starts

We'll email you once when it opens up. That's the only email you'll get from us.

We'll email you once before launch, and nothing else. No spam, no sharing your address, unsubscribe any time.